Reliability analysis of the Wadi Al-Arish surface water supply system on the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt

Modeling at the basin-scale provides essential information to policy makers in their decisions on allocation of water resources in the basin. This paper describes the application of a basin-scale simulation model. Mike Basin, to Al-Arish basin located in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula. Egypt. Based on the availability and utilization of the water resources in the basin, monthly simulation was carried out using hydrological data from 1983 to 2002. Climatic analysis indicates a high seasonal variation in water availability. The wet season water availability is not equal to dry season availability. Event-based reliability calculations of irrigation and water supply systems of the basin indicate that the existing level of demand has reasonable wet season water availability, but limited dry season availability. Moreover, sensitivity analysis indicates a 75% reliable cropping intensity in the wet season and only 5% in the dry season. A proper management approach developed from this analysis may provide a basis for a decision for policy makers in relation to the optimal allocation of water resources