The Impacts in Case of Agricultural Products Joining to Scope of Customs Union on Fresh and Vegetable Sector: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Fresh fruit and vegetable trade between the EU and Turkey has an important place in 2012 approximately 50.18% of fresh fruit and vegetable exports of Turkey was carried to EU. This study was conducted to determine the effects that might be caused by the case that the Customs Union (CU) Treaty, which was put into effect on January 1, 1996 between Turkey and European Union (EU), covers agricultural products on fresh fruit and vegetable business with the help of GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model. During the analysis, 9 nations-regions and 11 sectors taking place in GTAP database were included in the study. According to the results from the analysis, an increase in Turkey’s foreign trade of Fresh Fruit and Vegetable is expected (596.695 million dollars). Thus, an increase of 6.35% in production of Fresh Fruit and Vegetable is predicted. An increase of 442.31 million dollar in welfare is estimated if Turkey is fully integrated to CU. It was calculated that such integration will result in an increase of 124.38 million dollars in welfare in total in EU nations.