Uniform Hazard Response Spectra and Ground Motions for Tabriz.

Tabriz has experienced several large destructive historical earthquakes in the past. Due to the absence of ground motion records in this area, a simulation of future events based on a regional seismicity information and ground motion model is necessary. Based on a maximum likelihood method, earthquake magnitude is estimated for a 10% probability of exceedance within 50 years (475-year return period) and its corresponding strong ground motions have been simulated using stochastic finite fault modeling. Using different stress parameters, suites of ground motions have been simulated for a return period of 475 years and their spectral accelerations have been compared with the corresponding uniform hazard spectrum. It is observed that the fit between simulated spectra and its corresponding uniform hazard spectrum has been improved including the directivity effect especially at high periods.