A stochastic model to estimate origin-destination probabilities for electricity supply in GCC

In this paper a stochastic model has been developed to estimate the origin-destination (OD) matrices. Particularly, the model is capable of estimating the OD probabilities for the electricity supply in the GCC. The major basis in this model is its ability to account explicitly for missing observations. The maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters are derived in this work. In addition, the long run behavior of the model is studied. The long run mean of amount of electricity (LRAOE) enters as well as the long run mean cost (LRMC) per unit of time is considered for this model. Also, the LRAOE and the LRMC are considered for the case when one country uses all the amount of electricity enters (absorbing state) and the case where more than one country use all the amount of electricity enters (k absorbing states) conditional on one absorbing state.