Title of article :
Evaluate the power of a modified continuous time D-DM model, using BSPM and ASPM as benchmarks:a case study of a slow-growing tuna species (Thunnus alalunga Bonnaterre, 1788)
Author/Authors :
Liao, B Department of Mathematics - Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China , Karim, E Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute, Mymensingh 2201, Bangladesh
Abstract :
Delay-difference type models (D-DMs) represent a theoretical bridge between classical
surplus-production models and data-rich age-structured models. However, periodic
changes of recruitment, growth, and mortality rates can also be accounted for in the
continuous time delay-difference models (CTDDMs). Such models incorporate
biological processes by considering continuous time delays. In the present study,
CTDDMs produced realistic outputs for yield, biomass, and biological reference points
(BRPs) based on using data from the southern Atlantic albacore fishery. Simulations of
predicted biomass or numbers were carried out using fully age-structured information
(covering 30 years) and compared with more complicated age-structured production
models (ASPMs). The performance of the CTDDMs was also compared with that of a
Bayesian surplus production model (BSPM). BSPM estimates of the BRPs, e.g., r, k
and MSY, were used as benchmarks for the respective CTDDMs estimates. The
assessed maximum sustainable yields by the two models were approximately 21,600 t
and 23,500 t, respectively, while the CTDDMs produced more population parameters
estimation. The CTDDMs provided reliable prediction of BRPs for sustainable fisheries
management and required fewer data than ASPMs. This study have evaluated the
applicability and sensitivity of the continuous-time-type D-DM model. The scalability
of these models will be discussed in further research.
Keywords :
Thunnus alalunga , Bayesian surplus production model , Model validation , DDM , CTDDM
Journal title :
Iranian Journal of Fisheries Sciences