Title of article :
Using apgarch/avgarch models Gaussian and non-Gaussian for modeling volatility exchange rate
Author/Authors :
Abdulla, Suhail Najm Department of Statistics - University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq , Dhaher Alwan, Heba Department of Statistics - University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq
Pages :
29
From page :
3029
To page :
3057
Abstract :
This paper aims to measure the effect of the volatility on the daily closing price for the (Iraqi dinar against US dollar) from (21 July 2011) until (21 July 2021) using the models of asymmetric general autoregressive conditional heterogeneity (APGARCH and AVGARCH). The parameter estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation method and the error term assumed two distributional (General error distribution and Student's t distribution), the results showed that the APGARCH(1,2) with error term distributed (Student's t) distribution is the best model for the return series of the (IQ/USD) exchange rate to get the lowest value according to the information criteria for determining ranks (AIC, BIC) in addition to the presence of the asymmetric effect of the leverage, and this is evidence that negative shocks affect volatility more than positive shocks (the impact of the positive shocks is less than the impact of the negative shocks).
Keywords :
Volatility , asymmetric GARCH model , exchange rate
Journal title :
International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications
Serial Year :
2022
Record number :
2714044
Link To Document :
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