Author/Authors :
SAMUR, Cengiz Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi - İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - İktisat Bölümü, Turkey
Abstract :
SS crisis is the fact that a sharp, sudden decline in the net international private Capital Inflow (KI) and simultaneously Current Account Deficit (CAD), that causes to a production (supply) shock in the industry in real sector which is highly connected to imports (M) in respect to provide energy, raw material, mediate goods, capital goods, and causes finally a severe economic contraction. The international capital movements play the key role in the occurrence of SS crisis. This crisis type may happen in a country which both attracts international serious capital and its real sector is strongly dependent on imports (M) in respect to provide raw material, energy, mediate goods, and capital goods. SS crises are usually experienced with a currency or banking crisis. It is required as regard understanding SS crisis to take care on that the conceptions of “SS crisis” and “SS phenomenon” are different. SS phenomenon is that a severe reduction happens in international capital inflow (KI) and simultaneously in Current Account Deficit (CAD). In an other state, SS phenomenon is a sharp reversal in both international capital inflow and simultaneously current account deficit. However SS crisis is that this phenomenon changes to a crisis by bearing supply (production) shocks in the industries that is strongly connected to distruptions (bottle-necks) of imports and by leading to a serious economic contraction. The key fundaments of the Sudden Stopps (SS) crisis can be ordered as those; a decline in the international capital inflow and simultaneously in Current Account Deficit, a graveshock of supply (production) in the real sector and finally a great economic contraction, the asset market price’s crash, the collapse in the real currency rate, a sharp decline in the ratio of the prices of non-tradeble goods to the price of tradeble goods. In our papper it was foccused on the SS crisis’s experiences in Turkey since 1980 year. It were dealt with orderly those: SS crisis as general, the key factors of SS crisis, the defining amprically of SS crisis, SS crisis’ experiences in Turkey’s economy, some experiences whose nature is no SS crisis, some financial instabilities that doesn’t contain SS penomenon. In the Conclusion’s section there are some amprical results arrived. The graphes, about some SS crisis’ experiences in the developping countries, were placed in the Addition. 1994, and 2001 cases experienced in our country were defined as SS crisis amprically. 1994 crisis is essentially a currency crisis but also it is a SS crisis as nature. 2001 crisis is essentially a twin currency and banking crisis but also it is a SS crisis as the nature. 1988, and 1991 currency crises don’t contain a SS phenomenon, so they aren’t SS crises as theire natures. 1984 financial instability’s case neither changes to a crisis and nor contains a SS phenomenon.
Keywords :
SS crisis , current account deficit , Mexico crisis , Turkey 1994 crisis , currency crisis , financial crisis , crises , Sudden Stopps , international capital , Tequila crisis , Turkey economy , banking crisis , crisis