Soybean Yield in Future Climate Scenarios under Low Irrigation Conditions: Case Study: Pars Aabad of Moghan Plain, Iran

Using the AquaCrop model, this research simulated the grains and biological yields of soybean cultivars (M9, Zan and Williams) under different irrigation treatments and future climatic conditions. To this end, whether data of the LARS-WG model were used as input data related to 1970-2010 period in Pars­abad of Moghan Plain using AOGCM of HadCM3 based on scenarios of AR4 (A1B, A2 and B1) and NCAR based on scenarios of AR5 (RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) to study periods of 2011-2030 and 2046-2065. Results showed, compared to the historical period, the statistical periods of 2011-2030 and 2046-2065 would show increases in average monthly minimum temperatures for all scenarios. These periods would also reveal decreases in average monthly maximum temperatures as well as average monthly precipitations for scenarios of RCP8.5, A2, A1B, RCP2.6, and B1, as well as scenarios of B1, RCP2.6, RCP8.5, A2, and A1B, respectively. According to the findings of RMSE and NMRSE, the AquaCrop was a good model for performance evaluation and simulation. The values of grain and biological yield would increase more for A1B and RCP8.5 than for the other scenarios during future periods. These findings indicate that soybean is an acceptable plant for the future climate of Pars­abad of Moghan. In conditions of sufficient water and deficient water, Williams and Zan, respectively, exhibited lesser growth reduction and higher grain and biological yields than M9.