Author/Authors :
Yaseri, Mehdi Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics - School of Public Health - Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran , Soleimani-Jelodar, Rahim Department of Virology - School of Public Health - Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran , Rostami, Zohreh Department of Accounting - Islamic Azad University Qazvin Branch, Qazvin, Iran , Shahsavari, Saeed Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics - School of Public Health - Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran , Hosseini, Mostafa Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics - School of Public Health - Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Abstract :
Introduction: The social distancing plan is one of the ways that was implemented for management of COVID-
19 pandemic. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the social distancing on reducing the daily new cases
and deaths from COVID-19. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, the data of daily new cases and daily deaths
were collected from 15/02/2020 to 19/04/2020. Changes in the level and trend of daily new cases and daily
deaths before and after the implementation of social distancing plan were evaluated using interrupted time
series (ITS) analysis in STATA software. Results: The post-intervention trend had a decrease of 102 new cases
per day and 7 new deaths per day compared to the pre-intervention trend (p < 0.001). Moreover, in the postintervention
period, the daily new cases had a decrease of 58 new cases per day and 2 new deaths per day (p <
0.001). Conclusion: It Could be concluded that social distancing plan directly affects the new daily cases and
new daily deaths.
Keywords :
Physical distancing , incidence , COVID-19 , interrupted time series analysis , Iran
