Author/Authors :
Hamooni, Amir Faculty of Economics - University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran , Tajdini, Saeid Faculty of Economics - University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran , Qezelbash, Mohammad Financial Engineering - Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran , Jafari, Farzad Faculty of Managment - University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran , Ebrahimiyan, Niloufar Financial Management - Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract :
In this study, based on the monetary behavior theory, we first present a
model for determining the fair value of the Russian ruble in the long run
from 1999 to 2021 based on macroeconomic indicators including inflation,
and GDP per capita. and then we modeled the effect of widespread
Russian economic sanctions on the value of the Russian ruble during
the turbulent days of February 9 to April 9. Our research results show
that there is not much difference between market value and fair value in
the long run. Also, by observing the behavior of the ruble during the
turbulent days of February 25, 2022, to April 26, 2022, and by entering
the conditional risk factor and weighted average of the ruble, the USD
to ruble equality between 76.23 and 91.6 was evaluated.
Keywords :
Russian Ruble , Inflation , Monetary Theory MSC2010 Classification: 65D12, 91G30
