Moderation Role of Energy Prices on Financial Instability, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth in Non-OPEC Countries

This paper examined the interaction effect of energy prices on the relationship between financial instability, trade openness, and non-OPEC countries’ economic growth. The paper used panel time series data from 1970-2018. In addition, the paper applied a second-generation approach. The results of the cointegration test revealed a long-run relationship among the variables. Moreover, the results showed that financial instability, energy price, and the 2014 energy crisis have a negative effect on economic growth, while, trade openness has a positive effect on economic growth. Additionally, the results confirmed that the interaction term of energy prices and financial instability is negatively affecting economic growth, but the interaction term of energy prices and trade openness is positively affecting the economic growth of non-OPEC countries (emerging ASEAN economies). However, the results of the causality test indicated a one-way causal relationship between financial instability to economic growth, energy price to economic growth, and trade openness to economic growth. The empirical findings also suggested that interventions from the policymakers of the emerging ASEAN country could provide rigidity or policies on financial repression, instead of a more flexible financial system, designed to expand growth and stability in focused macroeconomic policies through financial rules. To control energy use and stabilize prices in ASEAN countries, there should be a comprehensive energy policy, which may have a negative impact on their economies, as most of the emerging ASEAN countries have not relied on oil revenues.