The Ultraviolet Index Forecast Using TUV Radiation Model over the Coasts of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea

Ultraviolet radiation can have a significant impact on human health, thus its prediction is necessary and important. In this study, the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible (TUV) Radiation model was used to predict the UltraViolet Index (UVI). This model requires the total ozone column, albedo and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data to forecast UVI. The Global Forecasting System (GFS) data was used for the total ozone column and albedo data, and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) was used for AOD data. In this study, 102 case studies were selected for the coastal stations and islands of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Due to the lack of access to the actual value of UVI, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) data were assumed as observational data. The verification results showed that in the warmer seasons of the year, when UVI levels are higher than in cold seasons, the forecast error is higher. Furthermore, when the AOD value is high, the forecast error is also high, but generally, the forecast is very accurate. For all selected case studies, the ME, MAE, RMSE and R values are -0.81, 1.07, 1.83 and 0.75 respectively, indicating the high accuracy of the UVI forecasts.