Relationship between Climate and Year to Year Variability in Crop Yield: Selected Districts of Pakistan

This paper aims to test the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity of major crops, including rice, wheat and maize, in specific districts of Pakistan. This is done by observing year-to-year fluctuations in rainfall and temperature in relation to agricultural productivity for the period 1981-2009. For estimation purposes, the production function technique is used to evaluate the relationship between climate and yield variability. The results show that higher amount of rainfall has a negative and significant impact on the production of all crops including wheat, rice and maize. It may be because unexpected rainfall in Pakistan during monsoon season severely damages crops. This result is consistent with our expectation that high level of rainfall would decrease agricultural productivity and contribute to food insecurity in Pakistan. However, variation in temperature displays a stable trend and has significant positive impact on crop yield. This is contrary to our expectation that high temperature results in low agricultural productivity. This analysis is useful from the stand point of policy makers and analysts as it will help them develop policies relating to improvement in agricultural sector in the context of climate change.