ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT, CRIME, DIVORCE, SUICIDE RATES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATION BY CAUSALITY TESTS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

In this study, the relationship between unemployment and other negative externalities and economic growth relation has been examined. Data covering the years 1980-2015 have been used. In the study covering this period, the interactions of unemployment, crime, divorce, suicide and changes in GNP were analyzed by unit root tests and causality tests. In econometric analysis, short and long-lasting causality relationship such as economic growth and unemployment, crime, divorce, suicide, GNP and employment was sought. Granger causality test and Toda-Yamamoto (MWALD) causality tests were used. Short and long term relationships are examined in Granger causality tests and MWALD causality tests. While Granger causality tests allow for Shortterm causality analysis, Toda-Yamamoto (MWALD) causality tests allow for Long-term causality analysis. Both causality test has been reached similar conclusions. The effect of unemployment on crime is in the positive direction. The increase in unemployment triggers suicide, the relationship between them is positive. There is a causal relationship between suicide and unemployment. There is a mutual causal relationship between crime and unemployment. There is a one-way causality relationship from unemployment to divorce. Between unemployment and crime there is a serious bilateral causal relationship. There is also a bi- directional causality relationship between unemployment and GNP. ARDL Test was performed on variables. According to this test, a negative relationship between unemployment and crime rates in the long term was found. Unemployment has been identified as having a positive impact on suicide and divorce. Unemployment has identified a positive relationship between suicide and divorce. In addition, the unemployment caused by the very important tasks of the state and society to overcome these problems is reduced. There is a need for policies to reduce unemployment. Requires the removal of taxes on employment. There is a need to improve the quality of human capital and education. Besides, the need to have an efficient production structure. That the state must personally enter into the real production and whether there is a need to broaden the public economic sector.