Increasing the Accuracy in Forecasting the Surface Drifter Trajectory by Using Data Assimilation

Predicting the path of pollution in the marine area is one of the most important concerns for those involved in environmental studies. In this paper, we have discussed the capabilities of using the data assimilation method in the FVCOM numerical model in forecasting the movement path of a surface drifter in the Strait of Hormuz. Initially, the FVCOM model was implemented for particle tracking by using environmental data in the Strait of Hormuz. Then tidal gages data of the Strait of Hormuz were assimilated in the numerical model using the nudging method. The results of the two runs were compared with field measurements data using statistical parameters such as bias and correlation coefficient. Statistical analysis and visual comparisons depicted the ability of data assimilation in optimizing the model water level outputs and reducing the differences between drifter location and model results and also the rate of the distance between them.