Dynamics of Covid-19 Pandemic, Health Infrastructure, and Economic growth: An Endogenous Growth Model

The impact of health infrastructure on economic growth in the framework of endogenous growth models has been studied in a few research pieces; however, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on economic growth in the endogenous growth models has not yet been studied. The present article expands the existing pieces of literature in several ways. First, investigating the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on economic growth in a steady-state situation. Second, identifying the threshold level of health infrastructure impact on long-term economic growth by considering the Covid-19 pandemic. Third, modeling of population dynamics and the Covid-19 pandemic. Fourth, modeling the level of following the protocols and public awareness of the Covid-19 pandemic and examining their impact on long-term economic growth. The developed model was calibrated using the information of a transition country, Iran. Results show If the health infrastructure is higher than the threshold level of 0.87, the output level will have an upward trend in the presence of the Covid-19 pandemic. Otherwise, the output trend will be downward. The increasing output could lead to the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic even in the long run in the Iranian economy. At a certain level of income, with the improvement of the health infrastructure, the level of Covid-19 pandemic release will decrease.