Determining the relationships between macro variables, financial constraints, capital structure and stock returns based on expert opinion and fuzzy interpretive structural modeling approach

The purpose of this research is to determine the relationships between macro variables, financial constraints, capital structure and stock returns based on expert opinion polls and a fuzzy interpretive structural modeling approach. The statistical population of this research includes experts and experts of the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization, 10 experts and 384 experts were randomly selected as the research sample. In order to analyze the opinions of experts, firstly, the fuzzy Delphi method and structural equations to evaluate the selected macroeconomic variables, financial constraints and their effect on the return and capital structure and the active companies of the companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange, and the fuzzy Dimetal method for Prioritizing indicators and monitoring factors were used, and structural explanatory equations were used to examine the relationships between variables. The findings of this research included several parts, in the first part, macroeconomic variables were identified and introduced using the Delphi technique, then the relationships between the main variables of the research were investigated using the fuzzy interpretive structural equation method, and finally the investment indicators and in Continued liquidity and financial constraints were identified as influential indicators. In the third part of the data analysis of this research, the impact of macroeconomic variables and financial constraints on capital structure and stock returns was investigated, which showed that financial constraints have an effect on the intensity of the economic production gap on capital structure, stock returns, and company size on stock returns.