Predicting Age Structure Changes Over 30 Years in the Population of War Survivors; the Past, Present, and Future

Aims: Predicting future changes in the age structure of the war survivors allows for the estimation of needs, prioritization, and planning for the provision of appropriate and dedicated services. This study aimed at prospectively examining the changes in the population structure over the past 30 years, focusing on the past, present, and future of this population. Instrument Methods: This descriptive research was done on veterans and the families of martyrs (parents/spouses/children). Demographic information was extracted from the booklet “Statistical Selections of Veterans and Martyrs Affair Foundation (VMAF)” published in 2010 and 2020. The total population covered by the was 3,640,489 people, with the number of war survivors at the time of the study being 896,635. First, the population growth rate between 2010 and 2020 was calculated. This rate was then used as the basis for predicting the age structure of veterans over the next 10 and 20 years. Findings: In the past ten years, the number of war survivors has decreased by 95,209 (9.6%), but the proportion of the population aged 60 and over has remained unchanged at 26%. Considering the growth rate, it is predicted that over the next 20 years, the population will continue to decline, decreasing by 34% from 896,635 to 587,485 by 2040. By 2030, approximately 68% will be over 60 years old, and by 2040, about 79% will be in this age group (a two-fold increase compared to 2020). Additionally, in 2040, there will be a three-fold increase in the number of  war survivors aged 70 and over compared to 2020 (n=363,479). The population of war survivors in 2020 increased very little compared to the previous ten years (2010), showing only a 1.4% increase. It is expected that in 2030 and 2040, the veteran population will decrease by 10.9% and 28.6%, respectively, from 526,442 to 377,237. It is anticipated that 93% (n=351,001) of veterans in 2040 will be over 60 years old, and 80.9% (n=305,137) will be over 70 years old. Conclusions: The number of war survivors in the next 20 years will reach two-thirds of the current number, with the majority being over the age of 70. The percentage of elderly individuals among war survivors, especially veterans, is expected to be over six times greater than the elderly population in Iran.