Two Monte Carlo Simulation Methods for the Analysis of Cost and Schedule Risks in Oil and Gas Projects Case Study: The National Iranian Drilling Company

The processes related to oil and gas infrastructure are costly and hazardous. So, it requires complex measures to prevent the project overflow in terms of cost and time. This paper proposes two new methods with the capability of use in oil and gas projects, namely a modified risk driver method, and an integrated risk-schedule driver approach under the pressure of probable resources. The goal of the study is to increase the use of cost and schedule risk analysis in the company under study with a focus on incidental costs calculated at the end of the development phase. Using the Primavera Risk Analysis software, we will perform the cost and schedule risk analysis of an oil project at the National Iranian Drilling Company using each one of the proposed modern methods and with the help of consulting engineers and compare their results considering the estimation of incidental costs and the recognition of high-severity risks. Then, we will perform a sensitivity analysis on the activity level in order to enhance the schedule risk analysis of the target company and identify the most significant activities in the project program through a series of measurements. Also, we will perform a numerical analysis considering the integrated cost and cost risks.