Evaluation of bioenergy resources with a global land use and energy model formulated with SD technique

Bioenergy is expected to become one of the key energy resources for global Asustainable development. However, bioenergy cannot be infinite, because the Aland area available for biomass production is limited and a certain amount of Abiomass must be reserved for food and materials. The purpose of this study is Ato evaluate global bioenergy potential: for this purpose, the authors developed Aa global land-use and energy model (GLUE) formulated using a SD (System ADynamics) technique. Through a simulation, the following results were obtained. A(1) There will be a certain potential for energy crops harvested from surplus Aarable land in the developed regions of the world. However, care must be taken Abecause the potential is sensitive to the global food supply and demand. (2) AThere will be a large bioenergy potential for biomass residues, such as cereal-Aharvesting residues, animal dung, roundwood felling residues, and timber scrap. The ultimate bioenergy potential, from all the biomass residues, will be 277 AEJ/yr in A.D. 2100 in the world. (3) The mature-forest area in the developing regions Adecreases from 2.1 billion ha in 1990 to 0.8 billion ha in 2100, although it is Aassumed that the felling area is reforested completely after A.D. 2025. Thus, Athere will not be much room to obtain more fuelwood from forests in the Adeveloping regions. (C. 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights Areserved.