Modeling PSA Problems - II: A Cell-to-Cell Transport Theory Approach

In the first paper of this series, we presented an extension of the classical theory of dynamic reliability in which the actual occurrence of an event causing a change in the system dynamics is possibly delayed. The concept of stimulus activation, which triggers the realization of an event after a distributed time delay, was introduced. This gives a new understanding of competing events in the sequence delineation process. In the context of the level-2 probabilistic safety analysis (PSA), the information on stimulus activation mainly consists of regions of the process variables space where the activation can occur with a given probability. The evolution equations of the extended theory of probabilistic dynamics are therefore particularized to a transport process between discrete cells defined in phase-space on this basis. Doing so, an integrated and coherent approach to level-2 PSA problems is propounded. This amounts to including the stimulus concept and the associated stochastic delays discussed in the first paper in the frame of a cell-to-cell transport process. In addition, this discrete model provides a theoretical basis for the definition of appropriate numerical schemes for integrated level-2 PSA applications.