Internal Variability Of The North Atlantic Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation

A new approach to understand the physical processes that govern internal variability of the large scale North Atlantic ocean circulation is outlined and current methods and results are reviewed. In this approach, based on the theory of dynamical systems, internal variability is viewed as arising through successive transitions when parameters are changed. The potential of the approach is demonstrated through analysesof solutions of intermediate complexity models of the wind-driven ocean circulation in the North Atlantic. In a quasi-geostrophic modelfor the flow in a rectangular basin with idealized wind forcing, the basic transitions are already found and physical mechanisms at work can be described in detail. Qualitatively, this transition behavior remains robust in more realistic models, having shallow water dynamics, realistic wind forcingand continental geometry, although patterns and time scales changethrough the model hierarchy. The relevance of the results is discussed inrelation to those of observations and of ocean general circulation models.