Distribution system reliability evaluation using the Monte Carlo simulation method

With the advent of high-speed computers, the utilization of Monte Carlo simulation techniques in reliability evaluation has increased considerably during the last few decades. This paper describes a Monte Carlo approach to a comprehensive distribution system reliability evaluation. The paper presents the results of load point reliability indices and system performance indices for six cases using the Monte Carlo method for a distribution test system. In particular, the probability distributions of system performance indices such as SAIFI, SAIDI and CAIDI for the six cases are presented. The probabilities of these indices occurring during different intervals are analyzed and the effects of different operation philosophies on the system performance indices are illustrated from the probability distribution point of view. The results obtained by the simulation method are compared with those obtained using an analytical approach. This paper illustrates that Monte Carlo simulation is a useful and powerful tool for comprehensive distribution system reliability assessment. The study results show that the simulation method gives acceptable reliability indices and can also be used to provide information on the probability distributions associated with the predicted indices.