Forecasting of energy production and consumption in Asturias (northern Spain)

Univariate Box-Jenkins time-series analyses (ARIMA models), were used for modeling and forecasting future energy production and consumption in Asturias. Initially, each series was recorded monthly from 1980 to 1996. These data include trend and seasonal variations which allow the use of ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) univariate models for predictions of future behavioral patterns. The optimum forecasting models obtained for each energetic series, have a satisfactory degree of statistical validity (low approximation errors) and are suitable for use as reference inputs in a regional energetic plan for the period 1997–98.