Energy demand in the fifteen European Union countries by 2010 — : A forecasting model based on the decomposition approach

This paper develops a forecasting model based on the complete decomposition method. The forecasting model allows the trend effect, the rebound effect and dematerialization/materialization to be estimated. To demonstrate the model, a case analysis of the probable energy demand in the 15 European Union (EU) countries up to 2010 has been made. The results show that the aggregate energy demand in the 15 EU countries by the end of 2010 will have increased from 258 to 426 Mtoe compared to the 1997 level, and dematerialisation will have increased from 73 to 225 Mtoe.