Time to realization: Evaluation of CO2 capture technology R&Ds by GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) analyses

R&D (research and development) processes of CO2 capture technologies having different levels of energy efficiency are evaluated through GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) analyses. Five types of the technologies are targeted for evaluation: chemical absorption, physical adsorption, membrane separation, O2/CO2 recirculation boiler, and integrated hydrogen separation gas turbine technologies. These technologies are decomposed into elemental technologies, and network charts are constructed which express R&D processes of the target technologies for the GERT analyses. Data on the elemental technology R&Ds are collected through a questionnaire to Japanese experts in 2001, and are used for the evaluation. The obtained results include that (1) the average expected time periods required for the completion of the target technology R&Ds are in the range of 16 and 19 years, except for a shorter R&D time of 13.8 years for the chemical absorption CO2 capture technology having the conventional energy efficiency, (2) though the R&D success probabilities are relatively high for the chemical absorption type CO2 capture technologies, they become lower as the energy efficiency becomes higher, which implies that the R&Ds of the capture technologies other than the chemical absorption type are also recommended for the successful completion of the capture technology which has the highest energy efficiency among the target technologies, and (3) additional R&D investments on large scale equipment such as tower, blower and pumping technologies are cost-effective for accelerating the target technology R&Ds.