Biofuels in the energy transition beyond peak oil.: A macroscopic study of energy demand in the Stockholm transport system 2030

The objective of this study is to examine the potential for a full transition to domestically produced biofuels in the Stockholm County transport system in 2030, without exceeding the proportional share of national bioenergy assets. This target is chosen in order to test the potential of biofuel assets in Sweden, facilitating the transition to renewable fuel systems, and to display the potential of transport energy demand at macrolevel under tighter conditions on the energy market after fossil oil production has peaked. The distribution of bioenergy to the transport sector, including conversion losses and relationships to other energy sectors, is analysed explicitly. State-of-the-art traffic forecasting models, complemented with a specially designed energy quantification model, are applied to assess energy quantities needed at different vehicle efficiency levels and mobility patterns. The purpose is not to determine the most energy-efficient transport system possible, or to forecast the optimal distribution of bioenergy set aside for the transport sector in the future. Rather, we try to visualise, at a more conceptual level, energy demand as dependent on principle transport strategies, future technological developments and a type of planning that takes technological interlinkages between evolving components into strategic account. This work highlights the importance of implementing both demand and supply-side policies in order to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in all energy sectors before making assessments of reasonable distributions of bioenergy between energy sectors and other biomass usage.