Fiscal system analysis—concessionary systems

The economic and system measures associated with hydrocarbon development are subject to various levels of private and market uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to develop an analytic framework to quantify the influence of private and market uncertainty under a concessionary fiscal system. A meta-modeling approach is employed to develop regression models for take and investment criteria in terms of various exogenous, fiscal, and user-defined parameters. The critical assumptions involved in estimation, the uncertainty associated with interpretation, and the limitations of the analysis are examined. The deepwater Gulf of Mexico Na Kika development is considered as a case study.