Abstract :
This review summarizes the result of the second round of nominations for the IASPEI
Preliminary List of Significant Precursors. Currently this List contains five cases of precursors: (1)
foreshocks, (2) preshocks, (3) seismic quiescence before major aftershocks, (4) radon decrease in ground
water, and (5) ground water level increase. A list of four cases that could not be accepted nor rejected
by the panels reviewing them contains three on crustal deformations and one on seismic quiescence. In
the second round 10 nominations were evaluated, nine new ones and one which had been considered
previously. Two were accepted for the List, two were placed in the category of undecided cases. To date,
a total of 40 nominations have been evaluated by IASPEI. For 37 of these the nominations, the mail
reviews, the panel opinions, and, where supplied, the authorʹs reply were published. This evaluation
process remains active throughout the International Decade for Natural Hazards Reduction. Additional
nominations are invited.
The IASPEI Sub-commission on Earthquake Prediction does not guarantee that precursors accepted
for the List can be used for earthquake prediction, nor does rejection of a nomination mean that the
particular method could never become useful for prediction. However, the List, as well as the
interchanges between authors and reviewers, allow us to gauge the state-of-the-art in earthquake
prediction research. It is clear that we do not have an earthquake prediction capability, because the
manner in which to use the few precursors on the List for predictions is not known. It also appears that
many of the results thought to be conclusive by the authors, may not command the respect of the
seismological research community at large. A more quantitative approach to data analysis, the use of
rigorous statistical techniques, and high quality, long-term data sets are needed to make progress in
earthquake prediction research.
