Title of article :
Intermediate-term Predictions of Earthquakes in Italy: Algorithm M8
Author/Authors :
L. L. Romachkova ، نويسنده , , V. G. Kossobokov ، نويسنده , , G. F. Panza ، نويسنده , , G. Costa ، نويسنده ,
Issue Information :
ماهنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 1998
Pages :
19
From page :
37
To page :
55
Abstract :
Large earthquakes in Italy are preceded by a specific seismic activation which could be diagnosed by a reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction method—a modification for lower seismic rate areas of the algorithm, known as M8 (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990). Use has been made of the PFG-ING catalog of earthquakes, compiled on a regular basis, to determine areas and times of increased probability for occurrences of M S 6 earthquakes. In retroactive simulation of forward prediction, for the period 1972–1995, both the 1976 Friuli, M = 6.1 and the 1980 Irpinia, M = 6.5 earthquakes are predicted. In the experiment where priority magnitude scale is used, the times of increased probability for a strong earthquake to occur (TIPs) occupy less than a quarter of the total magnitude-space-time domain, and are rather stable with respect to positioning of circles of investiga tion. Successful stability tests have been made considering a recently compiled catalog (CCI97) (Peresan et al., 1997). In combination with the CN algorithm results (Costa et al., 1996) the spatio-temporal uncertainty of the prediction could be reduced to 5%. The use of M8 for the forward prediction requires the computations to be repeated each half-year, using the updated catalog.
Keywords :
earthquake prediction , algorithm M8 , seismicity , Italy.
Journal title :
Pure and Applied Geophysics
Serial Year :
1998
Journal title :
Pure and Applied Geophysics
Record number :
429018
Link To Document :
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