Generalised Seismic Hazard Maps for the Pannonian Basin Using Probabilistic Methods

A set of seismic hazard maps, expressed as horizontal peak ground acceleration, is presented for a large area of Central Eastern Europe, covering the Pannonian Basin and surrounding area. These maps are based on (a) a compound earthquake catalogue for the region; (b) a seismic source model of 50 zones compiled on the basis of tectonic divisions and seismicity, and (c) a probabilistic methodology using stochastic (Monte Carlo) modelling. It is found that the highest hazard in the region derives from intermediate focus earthquakes occurring in the Vrancea seismic zone; here the hazard exceeds 0.4 g at return periods of 475 years. Special account has been taken of the directional nature of attenuation from this source. The maps are intended for use in studies of comparative methodologies for seismic hazard assessment.