Cadmium variability in leaves of a Salix fragilis: simulation and implications for leaf sampling

Plant analysis is a valuable tool to evaluate the pollution level. However, leaf sampling is complicated because of the high variability within the crown. To investigate the variability of cadmium (Cd) in the leaves of a tree, we sampled one Salix fragilis L. at 292 locations, each with a volume of 0.3 × 0.3 × 0.3 m. The Cd concentration was found to be normally distributed within a range from 2.4 to 10.6 mg·kg-1 dry mass (DM), with an average of 6.3 mg·kg-1 DM. A trend was found with high values in the lower parts of the crown and low Cd concentrations at the top. After removal of this trend the residuals showed a clear spatial structure modelled by a variogram. The Cd distribution in the leaves of the entire tree was predicted by sequential indicator simulation. These results were used to evaluate the current sampling strategy for tree leaves, i.e., sampling sun leaves of the upper third of the tree crown. The latter procedure was found to yield biased estimates of the average Cd concentration as well as the risk of exceeding a contamination threshold. An alternative sampling procedure is proposed. This procedure investigates whether a trend is present. Once the height where sampling will result in a correct statement of the treeʹs pollution is located, the rest of the stand could be sampled at this height.