Import prices and the political economy of tariffs: evidence from Germany, Japan, and the United States, 1954–1994

Endogenous protection theory suggests that macroeconomic conditions affect tariffs through policy responses to political pressure. However, import prices affect average tariffs even in the absence of policy changes. I examine the effects of import prices and macroeconomic conditions in postwar Germany, Japan, and the United States, finding strong evidence for the effect of import prices but little evidence consistent with endogenous protection theory.