Title of article :
Controlling spurious drift
Author/Authors :
Ronald Bewley، نويسنده , , Joanna Haddock، نويسنده ,
Issue Information :
روزنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2004
Abstract :
We show that linear restrictions can control which forecasts exhibit drift in a Bewley [Econ. Lett. 3 (1979) 357–361] transformation of a vector equilibrium correction (VEC) model. Controlling insignificant but numerically important drift has two benefits. First, it makes forecasts more credible. Second, it can make substantial improvements to forecast accuracy.
Keywords :
Bayesian VARs , forecasting , Vector equilibrium correction models
Journal title :
Economics Letters
Journal title :
Economics Letters