Commercialization scenarios of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell applications for stationary power generation in the United States by the year 2015

Battelle is identifying the most likely markets and economic impacts of stationary polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells in the range of 1–250 kW in the U.S. by the year 2015. For this task, Battelle is using the Interactive Future Simulations (IFS™), an analytical modeling and forecasting tool that uses expert judgment, trend analysis, and cross-impact analysis methods to generate most likely future conditions for PEM fuel cell applications, market acceptance, commercial viability, and economic impacts. The cross-impact model contains 28 descriptors including commercial and technological advances in both polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells and fossil fuel technologies, sources of hydrogen, investments, public policy, environmental regulation, value to consumers, commercialization leadership, modes of generation, and the reliability and prices of grid electricity. One likely scenario to the year 2015 is that the PEM fuel cells will be limited to commercial and industrial customers in the range of 50–200 kW with a market size less than US$ 5 billion a year.