EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION: A REVIEW OF STRATEGY

Of those portions of seismology of direct interest to society, earthquake prediction is of prime importance. The essential elements of a successful prediction are the correct assessment of the time, place and size of the predicted earthquake. Earthquake prediction techniques involve four basic steps: preliminary or statistical, long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term prediction. Until the causes of earthquakes are fully understood in a quantitative way, we will not be able to predict them within narrow limits of time, place and size. The most significant problem with earthquake prediction is probably the lack of acceptable models that explain why precursors work. Because of geological complexities in the Earth, earthquakes should be viewed as strongly nonlinear phenomena. Therefore, scientific understanding of boundary and initial conditions in each seismic cycle of any tectonically active zone is essential for predicting earthquake with a good degree of certainty. For the present, more research effort must go into the causes of earthquakes and the physical processes that give rise to various earthquake precursory phenomena.