Stimulus estimation and the overprediction of fear: a comment on two studies

The overprediction of fear is the tendency to overestimate the amount of fear one will experience in a subjectively threatening situation. This bias is thought to promote excessive avoidance and limit the opportunity for corrective learning. The stimulus estimation model states that the overprediction of fear arises from the overprediction of the danger features of the stimulus and the underprediction of available safety resources. Two recent studies reportedly failed to support the model (Arntz, Hildebrande & van den Hout, Behaviour Research and Therapy, 32, 709–722, 1994; Telch, Valentiner & Bolte, Behaviour Research and Therapy, 32, 747–751, 1994). The present commentary shows that both studies suffered significant methodological problems and neither can be said to have tested the model. Criteria for evaluating the model are briefly discussed.