Cognitive predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder in children: results of a prospective longitudinal study

The present study explored whether cognitive factors specified in the Ehlers and Clark model (Behav. Res. Ther. 38 (2000) 319) of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) predict chronic PTSD in children who had experienced a road traffic accident. Children were assessed at 2 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after the accident. Data-driven processing during the accident, negative interpretation of intrusive memories, alienation from other people, anger, rumination, thought suppression and persistent dissociation at initial assessment predicted PTSD symptom severity at 3 and 6 months. On the basis of sex and stressor severity variables, 14% of the variance of PTSD symptoms at 6 months could be explained. The accuracy of the prediction increased to 49% or 53% when the cognitive variables measured at initial assessment or 3 months, respectively, were taken into account.