Linking measures of health gain to explicit priority setting by an Area Health Service in Australia

A demonstration project was undertaken to develop an integer programming model that could help a regional health authority to take into account data on service effectiveness when allocating resources to acute inpatient services. The model was designed to find the mix of services that would maximise health gain from the available resources, and so provide information that could be used to encourage hospitals to change their patient mix. It was developed in collaboration with an Area Health Service in New South Wales, Australia, with the aim of assessing its potential as a decision support tool. Acute inpatient services were categorised in the model using classes derived from the Australian National Diagnosis Related Groups (AN-DRG) classification and the classes developed by the Oregon Health Services Commission. Estimates for the effectiveness of each service was derived from the Oregon benefit data. Estimates of resource use were derived from AN-DRG data. The expected demand for each service was derived from local activity data. Various scenarios were developed to assess the potential of the model to support decision makers. These mimicked plausible policy options and tested the sensitivity of the results to changes in the data. The scenarios demonstrated the model could reveal the consequences of different policy options, but also suggested that the difference in the cost-effectiveness of services close to the margin would be small and so a rigid approach to priority setting is undesirable. Difficulties in developing the model also demonstrate that incorporating health gain data into resource allocation decisions will not be straightforward for health planners.