Abstract :
The current ranges of many tropical species of conservation concern are poorly known, yet this
information is critical for assessing their conservation status against the IUCN Red List criteria
and implementing species-level management. Antpittas in the genera Grallaria and Grallaricula
are elusive, ground-foraging insectivores, highly susceptible to a range of threats. For these
genera, we combine environmental niche modelling with expert knowledge in order to predict
species’ geographic distributions, and we use current estimates of deforestation to evaluate their
conservation status in Ecuador. We use BIOCLIM to generate a first pass geographic prediction,
which was further aided by expert knowledge of their natural history. This methodology allowed
us to assess the conservation status of each species, revising previous assessments at the national
level and making recommendations for revision of global IUCN Red List categories. Based on
inferred rates of population decline, derived from estimates of loss of suitable habitat, we suggest
ranking three species as ‘Endangered’ in Ecuador, one as ’Vulnerable’, and three as ‘Near
Threatened’. Predicted national ranges vary in size from 56.05 km2 to 112,745 km2. Patterns of
range loss were different for each Andean slope, with higher deforestation on the western slope.
The combination of niche modelling and knowledge of habitat loss can be a powerful tool to aid
conservation efforts in the face of a poor understanding of population demographics, as is the case
for many Neotropical taxa.We hope the methodology and results provided here will increase our
understanding, and focus future attention on the conservation of this poorly known avian group.
