Whither the Arctic? Conflict or cooperation in the circumpolar north

Biophysical changes underway in the Arctic have stirred a remarkable surge of interest and concern in many quarters, including non-Arctic states and non-state actors. This article explores the implications of these developments for the pursuit of governance in the region. Many reactions to this situation are more alarmist than alarming. But recent developments do provide an excellent opportunity to reassess the effectiveness of existing arrangements and to enquire about the need for new forms of governance. The article does not support the claims of those who argue that a comprehensive, legally binding Arctic treaty (or even an Arctic Charter) is required at this time. Rather, it argues the case for a somewhat messier but more effective tripartite governance complex featuring an agreement to set aside without extinguishing claims to extended continental shelf jurisdiction on the part of the littoral states, an effort to adjust the character of the Arctic Council to meet emerging needs in the Arctic, and a push to devise issue-specific regulative regimes to address concerns involving shipping, fishing, and off-shore oil and gas development.