Mapping potential foodsheds in New YorkState: A spatial model for evaluatingthe capacity to localize food production

Growing interest in local food has sparked debate about the merits of attempting to reduce the distance food travels. Onepoint of contention is the capacity of local agriculture to meet the food needs of local people. In hopes of informing thisdebate, this research presents a method for mapping potential foodsheds, land areas that could theoretically feed urbancenters. The model was applied to New York State (NYS). Geographic information systems were used to estimate thespatial distribution of food production capacity relative to the food needs of NYS population centers. Optimization toolswere then applied to allocate production potential to meet food needs in the minimum distance possible. Overall, the modelshowed that NYS could provide 34% of its total food needs within an average distance of just 49 km. However, the modeldid not allocate production potential evenly. Most NYS population centers could have the majority of their food needssourced in-state, except for the greater New York City (NYC) area. Thus, the study presents a mixed review of the potentialfor local food systems to reduce the distance food travels. While small- to medium-sized cities of NYS could theoreticallymeet their food needs within distances two orders of magnitude smaller than the current American food system, NYC mustdraw on more distant food-producing resources. Nonetheless, the foodshed model provides a successful template forconsidering the geography of food production and food consumption simultaneously. Such a tool could be valuable forexamining how cities might change their food procurement to curb greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to depletionof petroleum and other energy resources necessary for long-distance transport of food