Revisiting the correlation between estimated seabird mortality and oil spill size

Scientific publications from 1993 and 2002 found no correlation between the size of an oil spill and the number of estimated seabird mortalities. If this could be updated to confirm a correlation, it could make a profound effect on the outcome of animal fatalities through faster deployment response times. Organizations that respond to disasters (natural or man-made) must organize and deploy massive resources, including supplies and personnel. The movement of these resources to a disaster site depends upon the location, type, and size of the disaster. Additional factors that affect how quickly and effectively resources are deployed include government allowance for response, time available for preparation, amount of funds available, and weather conditions. Establishing a correlation between estimated bird mortalities to oil spill size based on previous data, would provide organizations with vital information, allowing a quicker and more efficient response. Estimated bird mortalities from oil spills from 1937 to 1991 (n= 21) was compared with updated data from1955-2001 (n= 18). No correlation was found when looking at estimated bird mortalities versus oil spills between 10-225,000 tonnes (R2= 0.016). However, when considering oil spills under 50,000 tonnes, there was a strong correlation between oil spill size and estimated bird mortality (R2= 0.87). Most oil spills worldwide are less than seven tonnes, therefore, increasing the relevance of our findings. Responding to any disaster requires reliable data, which is crucial to the quick arrival of adequate support to start the care of affected animals.