ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF STRATEGIES TO CONTROL HIGH PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA IN BELGIUM

High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) may pose a major threat for the Belgium poultry sector, as an outbreak of HPAI results in tremendous economic losses. This paper aims to evaluate different strategies to control HPAI, in order to reduce the economic damage caused by an eventual future outbreak. The economic evaluation is based on the output of an epidemiological model called InterSpread PLUS, a SPPS module enabled to transfer directly the epidemiological output into economic data related to the losses at farm level. In a first stage the risks for the Belgium poultry sector are assessed. The actual risks are dependent of the intensive character ofpoultry farming in Belgium, the large amount of (international) transport movements of living poultry, the presence of sensitive nature areas and the border with the Netherlands where the poultry density is even larger. In a second stage, possible intervention scenarios are evaluated. Three scenarios are worked out: one stamping out scenario, corresponding with the current regulation and two emergency vaccination scenarios. The two vaccination scenarios have a different vaccination radius. In a last stage an economic analysis of the three scenarios is made. Results suggest that from an economic point of view, stamping-out is a better option at farm level then emergency vaccination within the current context. In addition to the losses at farm level, the evaluation of the losses at market level is the subject of further research