Does the availability of high-wage jobs for low-skilled men affect welfare expenditures? Evidence from shocks to the steel and coal industries

We study shocks to the coal and steel industries to measure the effect of long-term changes in demand for low-skilled workers on welfare expenditures. The coal and steel industries have historically paid high wages to low-skilled men. We find a substantial increase in welfare expenditures in response to the collapse of the steel and coal industries in the 1980s, and an even more substantial reduction in welfare expenditures during the coal boom of the 1970s. Additional analysis indicates the reduction in welfare expenditures during the coal boom is due in part to a decline in single-parent households.