Uncertainties in coupled thermal–hydrological processes associated with the Drift Scale Test at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Understanding thermally driven coupled hydrological, mechanical, and chemical processes in unsaturated fractured tuff is essential for evaluating the performance of the potential radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The Drift Scale Test (DST), intended for acquiring such an understanding of these processes, has generated a huge volume of temperature and moisture redistribution data. Sophisticated thermal–hydrological (TH) conceptual models have yielded a good fit between simulation results and those measured data. However, some uncertainties in understanding the TH processes associated with the DST still exist. This paper evaluates these uncertainties and provides quantitative estimates of the range of these uncertainties. Of particular interest for the DST are the uncertainties resulting from the unmonitored loss of vapor through an open bulkhead of the test. There was concern that the outcome from the test might have been significantly altered by these losses. Using alternative conceptual models, we illustrate that predicted mean temperatures from the DST are within 1 °C of the measured mean temperatures through the first 2 years of heating. The simulated spatial and temporal evolution of drying and condensation fronts is found to be qualitatively consistent with measured saturation data. Energy and mass balance computation shows that no more than 13% of the input energy is lost because of vapor leaving the test domain through the bulkhead. The change in average saturation in fractures is also relatively small. For a hypothetical situation in which no vapor is allowed to exit through the bulkhead, the simulated average fracture saturation is not qualitatively different enough to be discerned by measured moisture redistribution data. This leads us to conclude that the DST, despite the uncertainties associated with open field testing, has provided an excellent understanding of the TH processes.