A risk index for characterising flow pattern in soils using dye tracer distributions

A novel risk index for the vulnerability of groundwater by pollutants is defined as the form parameter of the Pareto distribution and estimated from dye tracer experiments. The Pareto distribution appears as the limit distribution of the extreme value theory, which has been applied to an idealised model of drops that run along a path. The properties of the risk index are investigated by a Monte Carlo study, where the paths are modelled by means of Gaussian random fields. The method is applied to three profiles obtained from Brilliant Blue tracer experiments of the soil physics group at ETH Zurich. It is shown that a single profile can be rather well characterised by the risk index. However, due to the high variability of the dye tracer profiles, an estimated number of at least 15 profile pictures are necessary to characterise a soil.