Predictability of sea level in the Meghna estuary of Bangladesh

The Bangladesh coast, which is already vulnerable to sea-level-associated disasters like flooding and inundation due to monsoons and the tropical cyclones, is being threatened by the phenomenon of sea-level rise, worsening the situation further in the densely populated deltaic region which is hardly 1 m above mean sea level. The interannual component of sea-level variability is very large on the Bangladesh coast. The present paper deals with the problem of predicting mean tide level 1 month in advance in the estuarine zone of the Bangladesh coast during the adverse weather period from September to December. Regression equations have been presented using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as predictor and mean tide level in the Meghna estuary as predicted. Mean tidal levels during the adverse period were found to be predictable on the basis of SOI 1 month in advance. Consequently, the results may find applications in the disaster preparedness programmes for Bangladesh.