Twentieth century thinning of Mendenhall Glacier, Alaska, and its relationship to climate, lake calving, and glacier run-off

Mendenhall Glacier is a dynamic maritime glacier in southeast Alaska that is undergoing substantial recession and thinning. The terminus has retreated 3 km during the 20th century and the lower part of the glacier has thinned 200 m or more since 1909. Glacier-wide volume loss between 1948 and 2000 is estimated at 5.5 km3. Wastage has been the strongest in the glacierʹs lower reaches, but the glacier has also thinned at higher elevations. The shrinkage of Mendenhall Glacier appears to be due primarily to surface melting and secondarily to lake calving. The change in the average rate of thinning on the lower glacier, <1 m a−1 between 1948 and 1982 and >2 m a−1 since 1982, agrees qualitatively with observed warming trends in the region. Mean annual temperatures in Juneau decreased slightly from 1947 to 1976; they then began to increase, leading to an overall warming of 1.6 °C since 1943. Lake calving losses have periodically been a small but significant fraction of glacier ablation. The portion of the terminus that ends in the lake is becoming increasingly vulnerable to calving because of a deep pro-glacial lake basin. If current climatic trends persist, the glacier will continue to shrink and the terminus will recede onto land at a position about 500 m inland within one to two decades. The glacier and the meltwaters that flow from it are integral components of the Mendenhall Valley hydrologic system. Approximately 13% of the recent average annual discharge of the Mendenhall River is attributable to glacier shrinkage. Glacier melt contributes 50% of the total river discharge in summer.