Analysis of extreme precipitation over Europe from different reanalyses: a comparative assessment

Statistical characteristics of daily precipitation in the reanalyses of the National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP1 and NCEP2) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; ERA15 and ERA40) are intercompared with each other and with the in situ data assembled from different collections of station observations. Intercomparison is performed over the European continent. Precipitation statistics analyzed were the precipitation intensity, the parameters of Gamma distribution and the 99% percentiles of daily precipitation. NCEP1 and NCEP2 reanalyses show the higher occurrence of heavy precipitation than ECMWF products. Station data in comparison to the reanalyses show significantly higher estimates of heavy and extreme precipitation. Among the four reanalyses, NCEP2 demonstrates the closest to the station data estimates of extreme precipitation. The analysis of linear trends of statistical characteristics of heavy precipitation in ERA40 and NCEP1 for a 43-year period shows similarity of the trend patterns in winter and identifies strong local disagreements, resulting in the trends of opposite signs during summer. Interannual variability of statistical characteristics in different reanalyses is quite consistent over the Northern and Eastern Europe than in the mountain regions of the Southern Europe. Correlation between statistical characteristics of precipitation in different reanalyses and between the reanalyses and station data is 20–30% higher during the winter season.